Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Poland 2026: Nearshoring Beneficiary, EU Funds Absorption, Defense Capex
Warsaw is converting geopolitical proximity into capacity, but the macro stack now hinges on absorption speed, fiscal arithmetic, and a hawkish central bank.
Poland in 2026 has three reinforcing tailwinds and one structural constraint. Nearshoring flows from German auto suppliers, Korean battery majors, and US logistics platforms are pushing greenfield FDI to multi year highs, while finally released Recovery and Resilience Facility tranches plus 2021 to 2027 cohesion envelopes are accelerating...
Slovakia 2026: Fico, EU Funds Conditionality, and the Transit Cliff
Fico's third government has triggered Brussels's rule of law machinery, frozen defense at 1.7 percent of GDP, and absorbed the January 2025 closure of Russian gas transit. With EUR 6.4 billion in RRF and EUR 12.6 billion in cohesion exposed, Slovakia's 2026 fiscal path is a Brussels variable.
Robert Fico returned to the premiership on October 25, 2023, after Smer-SD won the September 30, 2023 election with 22.94 percent. The Smer, Hlas, SNS coalition holds 79 of 150 seats. In February 2024 the cabinet pushed Amendment 40/2024 abolishing the Special Prosecutor's Office, drawing a Commission Article 7.1 TEU dialogue and triggeri...